They are low, unless you show the I.R.S. some conspicuous “red flags” on your return.
Fewer than 1% of Americans have their federal taxes audited. The percentage has declined recently due to Internal Revenue Service budget cuts. In 2016, just 0.7% of individual returns were audited (1 of every 143). That compares to 1.1% of individual returns in 2010.1,2
The rich are more likely to be audited – and so are the poor. After all, an audit of a wealthy taxpayer could result in a “big score” for the I.R.S., and the agency simply cannot dismiss returns from low-income taxpayers that claim implausibly large credits and deductions.
Data compiled by the non-profit Tax Foundation shows that in 2015, just 0.47% of Americans with income of $50,000-75,000 were audited. Only 0.49% of taxpayers who made between $75,000-100,000 faced I.R.S. reviews. The percentage rose to 8.42% for taxpayers who earned $1-5 million. People with incomes of $1-25,000 faced a 1.01% chance of an audit; for those who declared no income at all, the chance was 3.78%.2
What “red flags” could prompt the I.R.S. to scrutinize your return? Abnormally large deductions may give the I.R.S. pause. As an example, suppose that you earned $95,000 in 2016 while claiming a $14,000 charitable deduction. Forbes estimates that the average charitable deduction for such a taxpayer last year was $3,529.3
Sometimes, the type of deduction arouses suspicion. Taking the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) without a penny of adjusted gross income, for example. Or, claiming a business expense for a service or good that seems irrelevant to your line of work. A home office deduction may be ruled specious if the “office” amounts to a room in your house that serves other purposes. Incongruous 1099 income can also trigger a review – did a brokerage disclose a big capital gain on your investment account to the I.R.S. that you did not?4
Self-employment can increase your audit potential. In 2015, for example, taxpayers who filed a Schedule C listing business income of $25,000-100,000 had a 2.4% chance of being audited.2
Some taxpayers illegitimately deduct hobby expenses and try to report them on Schedule C as business losses. A few years of this can wave a red flag. Is there a profit motive or profit expectation central to the activity, or is it simply a pastime offering an occasional chance for financial gain?
If you are retired, does your audit risk drop? Not necessarily. You may not be a high earner, but there is still the possibility that you could erroneously claim deductions and credits. If you claim large medical expenses, that might draw extra attention from the I.R.S. – but if you have proper documentation to back up your claims, you can be confident about them.
The I.R.S. does watch Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) closely. Failure to take an RMD will draw scrutiny. Retirees who neglect to withdraw required amounts from IRAs and employer-sponsored retirement plans can be subject to a penalty equal to 50% of the amount not withdrawn on time.1
The fastest way to invite an audit might be to file a paper return. TurboTax says that the error rate on hard copy returns is about 21%. For electronically filed returns, it falls to 0.5%. So, if you still drop your 1040 form off at the post office each year, you may want to try e-filing in the future.4
This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.
Citations.1 - kiplinger.com/slideshow/retirement/T056-S011-9-irs-audit-red-flags-for-retirees/index.html [3/17]2 - fool.com/retirement/2017/02/06/here-are-the-odds-of-an-irs-audit.aspx [2/6/17]3 - forbes.com/sites/baldwin/2017/01/23/tax-guide-deductions-and-audit-risk/ [1/23/17]4 - fool.com/retirement/2016/12/19/9-tax-audit-red-flags-for-the-irs.aspx [12/19/16]
Will it apply to your retirement savings distribution?
If you receive a distribution from your IRA or workplace retirement plan, what will you do with it? You will probably want to arrange an IRA rollover – a common and useful financial move designed to take these invested assets from one retirement account to another, without tax consequences. The I.R.S. may give you just 60 days to do it, however.
The clock starts ticking on the day you receive the distribution. If assets from your employee retirement plan account or your IRA are paid directly to you, you have 60 calendar days to transfer those funds into an IRA or workplace retirement plan. If you fail to do that, the I.R.S. will characterize the entire distribution as taxable income. (It may also tack on a 10% early withdrawal penalty if you take possession of such funds before age 59½.)1
Your goal is to make this indirect rollover by the deadline. It is called an indirect rollover because its mechanics can be a bit involved. If the assets are coming out of an employee retirement plan, your employer may withhold 20% of them in accordance with tax laws. Unfortunately, you do not have the option of depositing only 80% of the distribution into an IRA or another employee retirement plan – you must deposit 100% of it by the deadline. You have to come up with the remaining 20%, yourself, from your own savings. The withheld 20% should be returned to you at tax time if the rollover completes smoothly.2
Can you make multiple IRA rollovers using funds from a single IRA? You can, but the I.R.S. says the rollovers must occur at least 12 months apart. Additionally, the I.R.S. prohibits you from making a rollover out of the “new” IRA that receives the transferred assets for a year following that transfer.1
This 12-month limit does not apply to every kind of retirement plan rollover. Trustee-to-trustee transfers, where the investment company (acting as custodian of your IRA or retirement plan account) simply sends a check for the assets to the brokerage firm that will eventually receive them, are exempt from the 60-day deadline. So are rollovers between workplace retirement plans, IRA-to-plan rollovers, and plan-to-IRA rollovers. If you are converting a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA, the 60-day rule is also irrelevant.1,2
Some retirement savers simply opt for a trustee-to-trustee transfer – a direct rollover – rather than an indirect one. A direct rollover of retirement assets is routine, and it can be coordinated with the help of a financial professional. If you do prefer to perform an indirect rollover on your own, be mindful of the 60-day rule and the potential ramifications of missing the deadline.
Citations.1 - irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/rollovers-of-retirement-plan-and-ira-distributions [2/8/17]2 - fool.com/retirement/2017/03/08/what-to-do-with-your-old-401k-when-switching-jobs.aspx [3/8/17]
What are the keys in planning to grow wealthy together?
When you marry or simply share a household with someone, your financial life changes – and your approach to managing your money may change as well. To succeed as a couple, you may also have to succeed financially. The good news is that is usually not so difficult.
At some point, you will have to ask yourselves some money questions – questions that pertain not only to your shared finances, but also to your individual finances. Waiting too long to ask (or answer) those questions might carry an emotional price. In the 2016 TD Bank Love & Money survey of 1,902 consumers who said they were in relationships, 42% of the respondents who described themselves as “unhappy” cited their number one financial error as “waiting too long” to discuss money matters with their significant other.1
First off, how will you make your money grow? Investing is essential. Simply saving money will help you build an emergency fund, but unless you save an extraordinary amount of cash, your uninvested savings will not fund your retirement.
So, what should you invest in? Should you hold any joint investment accounts or some jointly titled assets? One of you may like to assume more risk than the other; spouses often have different individual investment preferences.
How you invest, together or separately, is less important than your commitment to investing. Some couples focus only on avoiding financial risk – to them, maintaining the status quo and not losing any money equals financial success. They could be setting themselves up for financial failure decades from now by rejecting investing and retirement planning.
An ongoing relationship with a financial professional may enhance your knowledge of the ways in which you could build your wealth and arrange to retire confidently.
How much will you spend & save? Budgeting can help you arrive at your answer. A simple budget, an elaborate budget, any attempt at a budget can prove more informative than none at all. A thorough, line-item budget may seem a little over the top, but what you learn from it may be truly eye-opening.
How often will you check up on your financial progress? When finances affect two people rather than one, credit card statements and bank balances become more important. So do IRA balances, insurance premiums, and investment account yields. Looking in on these details once a month (or at least once a quarter) can keep you both informed, so that neither one of you have misconceptions about household finances or assets. Arguments can start when money misconceptions are upended by reality.
What degree of independence do you want to maintain? Do you want to have separate bank accounts? Separate “fun money” accounts? To what extent do you want to comingle your money? Some spouses need individual financial “space” of their own. There is nothing wrong with this, unless a spouse uses such “space” to hide secrets that will eventually shock the other.
Can you be businesslike about your finances? Spouses who are inattentive or nonchalant about financial matters may encounter more financial trouble than they anticipate. So, watch where your money goes, and think about ways to repeatedly pay yourselves first, rather than your creditors. Set shared short-term, medium-term, and long-term objectives, and strive to attain them.
Communication is key to all this. In the TD Bank survey, nearly 80% of the respondents who indicated they talked about money once per week said that they were happy with their relationship. Follow their lead and plan for your progress together.1
Citations.1 - gobankingrates.com/personal-finance/surprising-ways-money-affects-love-life/ [9/26/16]
If you plan to hold yours to maturity, the fluctuation in their market values need not be worrisome.
Are tough times ahead for the bond market? Some investors think so. U.S. monetary policy is tightening, with the Federal Reserve planning gradual increases for the key interest rate.
A rising interest rate environment presents a challenge to the bond market, but it does not necessarily imply some kind of doomsday for bondholders. Blanket advice to “get out of bonds” is imprudent, because it really all depends on what you intend to do with the debt investments you hold and how long you intend to hold them.
Rising interest rates affect the market values of bonds. Repeat: the market values. Market values should not be confused with face values.
To illustrate, say you invest $5,000 in a 30-year Treasury with a 1% yield. That means that every year for the next 30 years, that Treasury note will pay out $50 to you.
Then, interest rates on 30-year notes start climbing. Three years later, they reach 2%, and you have a problem if you want to sell your 30-year Treasury. The problem is that no one will buy it for $5,000. Why pay $5,000 for a 30-year Treasury with a 1% yield when you can invest the same $5,000 in a brand new one set up to yield 2%?
Bond yields and bond prices move in opposite directions, and in order for your $5,000 30-year note to yield 2%, its price (read: market value) has to drop to $2,500. The market value of your bond has fallen below its face value, and if you sell it, you will take a loss.1
Rising interest rates do not affect the face values of bonds. So, if you hold onto that 30-year Treasury until its maturity date, you will get your $5,000 principal back at that point, plus $50 per year in interest along the way.
There is a potential downside to holding onto that bond, however, and it may be measured in opportunity cost. Yes, you are avoiding a loss and redeeming your security for its face value. The thing is, you could, potentially, have put your money into another investment with a better yield – a yield that could have kept up with or surpassed the rate of inflation.
This is why some investors favor a laddered bond strategy. They take the interest their bonds pay out and use that money (and other funds) to buy newly issued bonds at higher interest rates, so they can benefit from the upside of a rising interest rate climate. Lower-yielding bonds in their portfolio are gradually replaced by higher-yielding bonds over time. Through this strategy, they can plan to manage interest rate risk and cash flow.
When interest rates fall, the market value of older, higher-yielding bonds rises. Interest rates do not have very far to fall right now, but this is a detail to remember for the future.
A fear of higher interest rates does not necessarily imperil bonds or bond funds. As a recent example, one bond market benchmark – the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Fund – rose 13% in the 12 months ending in November 2016.2
In the long run, we may see interest rates normalize. Bond investors planning to reinvest their money in newly issued bonds with higher yields can potentially take advantage of such a development.
Regardless of whether interest rates rise, plateau, or fall, remember that their movement does not affect a bond’s total return over its term.
Citations.1 - thebalance.com/the-difference-between-coupon-and-yield-to-maturity-417080 [6/3/16]2 - forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2016/11/30/how-rising-interest-rates-affect-bonds/ [11/30/16]
SBOs are taking a new look at old-school defined benefit plans.
Contrary to popular belief, classic pension plans have not disappeared. Corporations have mostly jettisoned them, but highly profitable small businesses are giving them a second look. Why are small business owners deciding to adopt old-school, employer-funded retirement plans?
The tax breaks attached to a defined benefit plan may be substantial. In fact, if these plans are funded with insurance contracts or guaranteed insurance products, plan contributions made by the owner become tax-deductible for the business.1
There is no cap on how much you can save. IRAs, 401(k)s, and SEPs all have annual contribution limits. Traditional employer-funded pension plans do not. Business owners have the potential to accumulate millions for the future through such a vehicle.
For the record, the IRS does limit the yearly retirement income that a participant in a defined benefit plan may receive. In 2017, the pension benefit resulting from such a plan may not exceed a) $215,000 or b) 100% of the participant’s average compensation across his or her three highest-paid consecutive years of service.2
If you are earning well into six figures and you are 45 or older, you may have entered the “sweet spot” when it comes to defined benefit plans. You will presumably be in your peak earning years, and yet you may need to accelerate retirement savings. A defined benefit plan offers you the possibility to do just that.
What are the downsides? Cost and complexity. Actuaries have to be involved (and paid) when you have one of these plans; you need an actuary to perform regular and annual calculations and valuations to see that the plan is being properly funded. In addition, the pension benefits need to be insured through the federal government’s Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), and in exchange for that service, the business must pay the PBGC annual premiums.2,3
An actuary must determine the annual employer contribution amount needed to fund the plan (typically adjusted yearly in light of investment performance) and the actuarial formula used to make contributions per worker. The business must fund the plan annually, regardless of how well it is doing.4
What businesses are bad candidates for defined benefit plans? If you have a small firm with ten or more employees, or if most of your employees are older or high-salaried, these plans may be a poor choice. That is because the employer contributions could be very expensive, even if you opt for vesting.1,3,4
What businesses are good candidates? Accounting, consulting, and medical practices are often good fits for these plans; seeing how many baby boomers have elected to continue working as consultants, you may see interest rising in them during the coming years.1,3,4
1 - investopedia.com/terms/1/412i.asp [12/20/16]
2 - irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-topics-defined-benefit-plan-benefit-limits [10/28/16]
3 - cfo.com/retirement-plans/2016/03/weighty-new-conundrum-pension-plan-sponsors/ [3/31/16]
4 - us.axa.com/axa-products/retirement-planning/articles/understanding-defined-benefit-plans.html [10/16]
A look at this easy-to-administer retirement program.
Do you want a simple retirement plan? A plan you can implement easily as an independent contractor or small business owner, without a lot of paperwork? A SIMPLE IRA may be the answer.
A SIMPLE IRA plan gives you a tax break, while giving you and your employees a way to build retirement savings. True to its name, it requires no annual filing of Form 5500 with the IRS, which is typical for many other types of small business retirement plans. SIMPLE IRA plans are often set up using IRS Forms 5304-SIMPLE or 5305-SIMPLE.1
If you work solo, a SIMPLE plan could really help your retirement saving effort. Frustrated at the annual ceiling on Roth or traditional IRA contributions that lets you save only a few thousand dollars a year? Well, you can direct up to $12,500 per year into a SIMPLE IRA, $15,500 if you are 50 or older.1
SIMPLE IRA contributions are made with pre-tax dollars, so they are 100% deductible. Just like other IRAs, a SIMPLE IRA allows tax-deferred growth of invested assets.2
How does a SIMPLE IRA plan work when you have employees? Each one of your employees gets their own IRA as part of the plan, with the same high annual contribution limits noted above. As an employer, you must contribute to their IRAs each year in one of two ways (and you must inform them which approach you will take for the coming calendar year):
*You can elect to match their contributions, dollar-for-dollar, to a limit of 3% of their annual salaries. (If you like, you can set this limit as low as 1%, but you can only lower the limit from the standard 3% in two years out of any five-year period.) 1,2
*Or, you can just make a non-elective contribution of 2% of each employee’s salary to each employee’s plan. If you choose this option, you must make these 2% contributions whether or not the employee makes any plan contributions.1,2
Employee contributions to a SIMPLE IRA are always 100% vested, and employees are free to make their own investment decisions. As the accounts are IRAs, the money saved and invested may be held in a variety of investment vehicles offered by particular plan vendors.1
What does an employee have to do to be eligible for the plan? Each employee must meet two simple compensation tests. One, will that employee receive at least $5,000 in compensation from your business this year? Two, did he or she receive $5,000 or more in compensation from your business during any of the two prior years? If both those tests are met, that employee can participate in a SIMPLE IRA plan.1
Do SIMPLE IRAs have any shortcomings? Yes, they do; no small business retirement plan is perfect. An employer must always make contributions to a SIMPLE IRA, year-in and year-out. Plan participant loans are also prohibited from SIMPLE IRAs, which is not the case with many other retirement plan accounts. That said, there is much more to like about SIMPLE IRAs than there is to dislike.2
Why not make things SIMPLE? Look into a SIMPLE IRA plan for your business, your employees, and yourself. Sole proprietorships, partnerships, and corporations all have them – for great reasons.
Citations.1 - irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/who-can-participate-in-a-simple-ira-plan [3/15/16]2 - irs.gov/retirement-plans/choosing-a-retirement-plan-simple-ira-plan [7/28/16]
Why aren’t they rising? Are they the new normal?
In November 2012, the interest rate on a 30-year home loan averaged just 3.31%. That was an all-time low. Simultaneously, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged just 2.63% interest and the rate on the adjustable 5/1-year loan fell to 2.74%.1,2
Nearly four years after Freddie Mac reported those numbers, mortgage rates are back near those levels. The 30-year FRM has averaged less than 4% interest all year, declining from a high of 3.97% in Freddie’s January 7 Primary Mortgage Market Survey down to the vicinity of 3.5%, in its September 15 PMMS findings.3
Are ultra-low mortgage rates here to stay? They could be. When the Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate in December 2015, analysts thought mortgages would gradually become more expensive. That hasn’t happened. An overseas economic development helped to keep them in check. After voters in the United Kingdom approved the Brexit in June, U.S. investors raced to buy Treasuries. Their yields hit record lows as prices jumped, thanks to demand.4
While the yield on the 10-year Treasury quickly rebounded, the Brexit caused Freddie Mac’s analysts to revise their view of where rates were headed. In July, they forecast that rates on conventional home loans would stay at 3.6% or lower for the rest of 2016, and average around 4% in 2017. Kiplinger analysts predict that the average interest rate on the 30-year FRM will be no higher than 3.7% at the end of 2017.4,5
Mortgage rates tend to move in relation to expectations about Federal Reserve policy. You may see rates move north appreciably when the Fed hikes, but they could fall again thereafter. In fact, that was exactly what happened in the first half of 2016.6
The Fed’s dot-plot forecast of near-term interest rates posits that the federal funds rate will be under 5% for the balance of this decade. With the central bank setting those kinds of expectations, there is an excellent chance that you may see relatively low mortgage rates for the next few years. (Historically, interest rates on conventional mortgages have averaged around 8%.)6,7
Citations.1 - realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2016/07/15/mortgage-rates-stay-near-record-low [7/15/16]2 - freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html?year=2012 [9/19/16]3 - freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html?year=2016 [9/12/16]4 - washingtonpost.com/news/where-we-live/wp/2016/07/14/mortgage-rates-remain-low-and-look-to-stay-that-way-for-a-while/ [7/14/16]5 - kiplinger.com/article/business/T019-C000-S010-interest-rate-forecast.html [9/16/16]6 - cnbc.com/2016/09/12/mortgage-rates-finally-break-higher-what-you-should-watch.html [9/12/16]7 - businessinsider.com/fed-dot-plot-june-2016-2016-6 [6/15/16]
Working a little (or a lot) after 60 may become the norm.
Do we really want to retire at 65? Not according to the latest annual retirement survey from the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies which gauges the outlook of American workers. It found that 51% of us plan to work part-time once retired. Moreover, 64% of workers 60 and older wanted to work at least a little after 65 and 18% had no intention of retiring.1
Are financial needs shaping these responses? Not entirely. While 61% of all those polled in the Transamerica survey cited income and employer-sponsored health benefits as major reasons to stay employed in the “third act” of life, 34% of respondents said they wanted to keep working because they enjoy their occupation or like the social and mental engagement of the workplace.1
It seems “retirement” and “work” are no longer mutually exclusive. Not all of us have sufficiently large retirement nest eggs, so we strive to stay employed – to let our savings compound a little more, and to leave us with fewer years of retirement to fund.
We want to keep working into our mid-sixties because of two other realities as well. If you are a baby boomer and you retire before age 66 (or 67, in the case of those born 1960 and later), your monthly Social Security benefits will be smaller than if you had worked until full retirement age. Additionally, we can qualify for Medicare at age 65.2,3
We are sometimes cautioned that working too much in retirement may result in our Social Security benefits being taxed – but is there really such a thing as “too much” retirement income?
Income aside, there is another question we all face as retirement approaches.
How much control will we have over our retirement transition? In the Transamerica survey, 41% of respondents saw themselves making a gradual entry into retirement, shifting from full-time employment to part-time employment or another kind of work in their sixties.1
Is that thinking realistic? It may or may not be. A recent Gallup survey of retirees found that 67% had left the workforce before age 65; just 18% had managed to work longer. Recent research from the Employee Benefit Retirement Institute fielded roughly the same results: 14% of retirees kept working after 65 and about half had been forced to stop working earlier than they planned due to layoffs, health issues or eldercare responsibilities.3
If you do want to make a gradual retirement transition, what might help you do it? First of all, work on maintaining your health. The second priority: maintain and enhance your skill set, so that your prospects for employment in your sixties are not reduced by separation from the latest technologies. Keep networking. Think about Plan B: if you are unable to continue working in your chosen career even part-time, what prospects might you have for creating income through financial decisions, self-employment or in other lines of work? How can you reduce your monthly expenses?
Easing out of work & into retirement may be the new normal. Pessimistic analysts contend that many baby boomers will not be able to keep working past 65, no matter their aspirations. They may be wrong – just as this active, ambitious generation has changed America, it may also change the definition of retirement.
1 - forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2015/05/05/why-the-new-retirement-involves-working-past-65/ [5/5/15]
2 - ssa.gov/retire2/agereduction.htm [6/11/15]
3 - money.usnews.com/money/blogs/planning-to-retire/2015/05/22/how-to-pick-the-optimal-retirement-age [5/22/15]
If you are between 40 & 60, beware of these financial blunders & assumptions.
Between the ages of 40 and 60, many people increase their commitment to investing and retirement saving. At the same time, many fall prey to some common money blunders and harbor financial assumptions that may be inaccurate.
These errors and suppositions are worth examining, as you do not want to succumb to them. See if you notice any of these behaviors or assumptions creeping into your financial life.
Do you think you need to invest with more risk? If you are behind on retirement saving, you may find yourself wishing for a “silver bullet” investment or wishing you could allocate more of your portfolio to today’s hottest sectors or asset classes so you can catch up. This impulse could backfire. The closer you get to retirement age, the fewer years you have to recoup investment losses. As you age, the argument for diversification and dialing down risk in your portfolio gets stronger and stronger. In the long run, the consistency of your retirement saving effort should help your nest egg grow more than any other factor.
Are you only focusing on building wealth rather than protecting it? Many people begin investing in their twenties or thirties with the idea of making money and a tendency to play the market in one direction – up. As taxes lurk and markets suffer occasional downturns, moving from mere investing to an actual strategy is crucial. At this point, you need to play defense as well as offense.
Have you made saving for retirement a secondary priority? It should be a top priority, even if it becomes secondary for a while due to fate or bad luck. Some families put saving for college first, saving for mom and dad’s retirement second. Remember that college students can apply for financial aid, but retirees cannot. Building college savings ahead of your own retirement savings may leave your young adult children well-funded for the near future, but they may end up taking you in later in life if you outlive your money.
Has paying off your home loan taken precedence over paying off other debts? Owning your home free and clear is a great goal, but if that is what being debt-free means to you, you may end up saddled with crippling consumer debt on the way toward that long-term objective. In June 2015, the average American household carried more than $15,000 in credit card debt alone. It is usually better to attack credit card debt first, thereby freeing up money you can use to invest, save for retirement, build a rainy day fund – and yes, pay the mortgage.1
Have you taken a loan from your workplace retirement plan? Hopefully not, for this is a bad idea for several reasons. One, you are drawing down your retirement savings – invested assets that would otherwise have the capability to grow and compound. Two, you will probably repay the loan via deductions from your paycheck, cutting into your take-home pay. Three, you will probably have to repay the full amount within five years – a term that may not be long as you would like. Four, if you are fired or quit the entire loan amount will likely have to be paid back within 90 days. Five, if you cannot pay the entire amount back and you are younger than 59½, the IRS will characterize the unsettled portion of the loan as a premature distribution from a qualified retirement plan – fully taxable income subject to early withdrawal penalties.2
Do you assume that your peak earning years are straight ahead? Conventional wisdom says that your yearly earnings reach a peak sometime in your mid-fifties or late fifties, but this is not always the case. Those who work in physically rigorous occupations may see their earnings plateau after age 50 – or even age 40. In addition, some industries are shrinking and offer middle-aged workers much less job security than other career fields.
Is your emergency fund now too small? It should be growing gradually to suit your household, and your household may need much greater cash reserves today in a crisis than it once did. If you have no real emergency fund, do what you can now to build one so you don’t have to turn to some predatory lender for expensive money.
Insurance could also give your household some financial stability in an emergency. Disability insurance can help you out if you find yourself unable to work. Life insurance – all the way from a simple final expense policy to a permanent policy that builds cash value – offers another form of financial support in trying times.
Watch out for these mid-life money errors & assumptions. Some are all too casually made. A review of your investment and retirement savings effort may help you recognize or steer clear of them.
1 - nerdwallet.com/blog/credit-card-data/average-credit-card-debt-household/ [6/25/15]
2 - tinyurl.com/oalk4fx [9/14/14]
In fact, many predictions about Wall Street have misread the market’s direction.
Trying to determine how Wall Street will behave next week, next month, or next year is difficult. Some feel it is impossible. To predict the near-term direction of the market, you may also need to predict upcoming earnings seasons, central bank policy moves, and the direction of both the domestic and global economy. You might as well forecast the future of the world.
That is not to say forecasting is useless. You could even argue that it is a necessity. Every month, economists are polled by various news outlets that publish their median forecasts for hiring, inflation, personal spending, and other economic indicators. Those median forecasts are often close to the mark, and sometimes exactly right.
Figuring out what lies ahead for equities, however, is often a guessing game. Looking back, some very bold predictions have been made for the market – some way off the mark.
Dow 30,000! More than a decade ago, a few analysts boldly forecast that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would climb to astonishing heights – heights the index has yet to reach today.
The first was investment manager Harry Dent, who, to his credit, had written a book called Great Boom Ahead predicting an amazing run for both the economy and the market starting in the mid-1990s. (Indeed, the S&P 500 averaged a yearly gain of almost 29% during 1995-99.) Dent’s 1999 bestseller, The Roaring 2000s, posited that the Dow would top 30,000, perhaps 35,000 in the near future as maturing baby boomers poured money into equities. He was wrong. What happened instead was the so-called “lost decade,” in which the broad market basically did not advance. As for the Dow 30, it ended the 2000s at 11,497.12.1,2
As a money manager, Robert Zuccaro had been part of a team that had realized triple-digit annual returns in the late 1990s. He put out a book soon afterward called Dow 30,000 by 2008: Why It’s Different This Time. (As the market cratered in 2008, you might say his timing was bad.) Analysts James K. Glassman and Kevin A. Hassett authored a volume called Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market. It came out in 2000, and also proved overly optimistic.2,3
Dow 3,300! Harry Dent changed his outlook over time. In 2011, he told the Tampa Bay Times that the blue chips would plunge to that dismal level by 2014 or earlier. The Dow finished 2014 at 17,823.07. For the record, Dent now sees a “bubble collapse” starting in 2016 or 2017, soon breeding “widespread civil unrest” in America.2,4
Sell your shares now! In “Bearish on America,” a 1993 Forbes cover story, Morgan Stanley analyst Barton Biggs urged investors to dump their domestic shares en masse in light of the economic policies favored by a new presidential administration. The compound return of the S&P 500 over the next seven years: 18.5%.5
The market is done, no one believes in it! Perhaps the most famous doomsday call of all time occurred in 1979 when Business Week published a cover story entitled “The Death of Equities.” Wall Street was emerging from its second awful bear market in less than seven years. The article cited a widespread loss of faith among investors, asserting that “the death of equities is a near permanent condition.” Equities, so to speak, soon proved very much alive: the S&P 500 returned 21.55% in 1982, 22.56% in 1983, 6.27% in 1984, 31.73% in 1985, and 18.67% in 1986.5,6
Recession ahead, the market points the way! Can the behavior of the market foretell a recession? Is there a causal relationship between a down or sideways market and an oncoming economic slump? Some analysts see little or no link. Fifty years ago in Newsweek, the noted economist Paul Samuelson wrote that the equity markets had “forecast nine of the past five recessions.” He was being sardonic, but he had a point. Looking back from 2016 to 1945, Wall Street has seen 13 bear markets, only seven of which (53%) have seen a recession begin within about a year of their onset.7,8
Take the words of the pundits with a grain of salt. Some have been right, but many have been wrong. While the most radical market predictions may make good copy, they may also lead investors to take bad advice.5
Citations.1 - cbsnews.com/news/harry-dent-and-the-chamber-of-poor-returns/ [8/19/13]2 - finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^DJI&a=11&b=29&c=1999&d=11&e=31&f=2014&g=d [6/2/16]3 - dividend.com/how-to-invest/10-hilariously-wrong-bullbear-calls/ [1/19/15]4 - tampabay.com/news/business/markets/economic-naysayers-including-tampas-harry-dent-are-back-with-fresh-reports/2270981 [3/28/16]5 - forbes.com/sites/katestalter/2015/09/14/6-doomsday-predictions-that-were-dead-wrong-about-the-market/ [9/14/15]6 - forbes.com/sites/oppenheimerfunds/2014/01/23/clues-from-the-80s-bull-run/ [1/23/14]7 - cnbc.com/2016/02/04/can-the-markets-predict-recessions-what-we-found-out.html [2/4/16]8 - blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/10/03/plunging-stock-prices-are-good-recession-predictor/ [10/3/13]